- In 2024, schemes administered by the Clean Energy Regulator (CER) are estimated to have reduced emissions by at least 69.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e), up 8% from 2023.
- Overall Australian carbon credit unit (ACCU) market liquidity looks strong in the year ahead, with new ACCU supply for 2024 reaching 18.8 million and the 2025 new supply outlook expected to be between 19 and 24 million ACCUs depending on the timing of ACCU claims and issuances.
- We estimate about 60% of total ACCUs are held by safeguard or safeguard related entities. We saw increased trading activity in the fourth quarter as safeguard facilities worked to ensure they have adequate supply to meet their compliance obligations.
- Implementation of the reformed Safeguard Mechanism continues to progress well in the lead up to the first compliance deadline under the reforms on 31 March 2025. Following the CER’s quality assurance processes and the assessment of applications under flexibility and excess management options, the CER:
- expect 144 facilities to have a total excess of approximately 9.2 mtCO2-e
- has issued over 8.0 million Safeguard Mechanism credit units (SMCs) to facilities.
- These figures update the Climate Change Authority’s early analysis of the outcomes of the first compliance period under the reformed Safeguard Mechanism on 15 November 2024. The CER will publish full details on the operation of the Safeguard Mechanism by 15 April 2025.
- In 2024, we saw a record year of total added renewable energy generation capacity of 7.5 gigawatts (GW), up from 5.3 GW in 2023.
- This record generation capacity was largely made up of wind generation.
- Rooftop solar capacity is likely to have been about 3.2 GW and we expect it will match or exceed the previous record. This is still an estimate because small-scale technology certificates can be created up to 12 months after installation. A clearer picture of 2024 will be available by April.
- In 2024, 10.4 million large-scale generation certificates (LGCs) were cancelled for non Renewable Energy Target (non-RET) purposes. We expect this to be stronger in 2025, with drivers including commitments made by many large Australian businesses to be powered by 100% renewables.
- We anticipate voluntary cancellations of around 12.5 to 15 million LGCs this year.
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Report
The QCMR report consolidates information across the national carbon markets that the CER administers for the December Quarter 2024 (October to December 2024). It provides information on supply and demand trends and opportunities that may inform market decisions.
Quarterly Carbon Market Report December Quarter 2024 ( 2.91 MB pdf )Data workbook
The QCMR data workbook – December Quarter 2024 contains the data underlying the figures in the report as well as additional data.
Updated: 28 February 2025
Changes
Updated:
- Figure 1.2 - Generic Australian carbon credit unit (ACCU) volume weighted average spot price
- Figure 3.2 - Large-scale generation certificate (LGC) reported spot and forward prices
- Figure 3.7 - Large-scale generation certificate (LGC) spot price
- Figure 4.2 - Small-scale technology certificate (STC) reported spot and clearing house prices
- Figure 4.3 - Small-scale rooftop solar installations and installed capacity in megawatts (MW)
- Figure 4.6 - Small-scale rooftop solar installed capacity in megawatts (MW) by state and territory
New:
- Figure 1.5 - Estimated Australian carbon credit unit (ACCU) issuances for 2025
- Figure 2.1 - Installed and approved renewable capacity by technology type
- Figure 2.2 - Renewables generation share and emissions intensity of the National Electricity Market
- Figure 4.4 - Proportion of battery-connected small-scale installations in NSW and Australia
- Table 4.1 - Small-scale rooftop solar installations and proportion with reported battery storage, by system installation type and state or territory
- Figure 5.1 - Estimated emissions reduction from Clean Energy Regulator (CER) schemes
Media release
Read the media release: Latest report shows Australian Government schemes working to reduce emissions