The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) says 2025 is tracking to be another strong year for total renewables, with close to 7 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity expected to be added to Australia’s electricity grids.
The CER’s Quarterly Carbon Market Report (QCMR) for Q3 shows approved large-scale renewable capacity is likely to reach 3.8 to 4.0 GW across Australia’s in 2025 – a good result immediately following the 2024 record of 4.3 GW. Rooftop solar is expected to add a little under 3.0 GW in capacity.
While the large- and small-scale generators help produce the energy we need, battery storage is also an essential part of the energy transition.
The popularity of the Cheaper Home Batteries Program continues, with up to 175,000 valid battery applications representing 3.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of storage capacity expected by the end of 2025.
‘The expected storage capacity for the first 6 months of the program is more than the 5 biggest utility-sized batteries currently operational in the National Electricity Market combined,’ CER Chair David Parker said.
In the Safeguard Mechanism, preliminary data for the second year of the scheme is showing encouraging signs and suggests the Safeguard Mechanism is operating as intended, encouraging facilities to progressively reduce their industrial emissions at source.
For example, in 2024-25 covered emissions at Safeguard facilities reduced by 2.4% to approximately 132.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e), down from 135.9 Mt CO2-e in 2023-24. Responsible emitters of 59 facilities reported covered emissions below their baseline and may be eligible for an approximate total of 7 million Safeguard Mechanism credit units (SMCs) which is 15.7% lower than in 2023-24. Potential exceedance of reported emissions above baselines is 13.7 Mt CO2-e, an increase of 48.9% from 2023-24.
The CER issued 5.5 million Australian carbon credit units (ACCUs) in Q3 2025. This brings the year-to-date figure to 15 million, with the total ACCU supply for 2025 expected to be towards the higher end of the projected range between 19 and 24 million.
ACCUs and SMCs play an important role in allowing companies to comply with their safeguard obligations while they transition by implementing their decarbonisation projects.
‘A strong, liquid ACCU market is expected over the next few years, which will support safeguard entities to plan for their future compliance obligations as baselines decline over time,’ Mr Parker said.
‘In addition, the CER has completed successfully migrating ACCUs into the new unit and certificate registry. The migration marks an important milestone for the CER and will support the ongoing growth of deep, liquid, transparent and accessible carbon markets,’ Mr Parker said.
Along with major enhancements to Australia’s carbon market infrastructure, the CER has launched an important piece of climate policy architecture. The Guarantee of Origin scheme will support the development of low-emissions industry and energy by providing trusted, robust emissions tracking of renewable energy and low emissions products. The CER has started processing applications to participate in the new program.
For more detail, read the latest Quarterly Carbon Market Report.
Contact: media@cer.gov.au or 02 6159 3448.