Key highlights for the first quarter of 2023 include projected ACCU supply scarcity as demand increases in response to the Safeguard reforms, material increase in large-scale renewable capacity first generation expected from 2024, and 40% growth in air source heat pump installations.



Confidence renewed in the ACCU market

  • Spot prices for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) have settled around $38 as the market digests details of the Safeguard reforms. The reforms will deliver over 200 million tonnes of emissions reductions by 2030. This is expected to drive a material increase in the demand for ACCUs as entities seek to hedge their forward liability.
  • 432 megawatts (MW) of large-scale capacity reached final investment decision (FID) in Q1 2023. Following record announcements in Q4 2022, this modest amount was expected. Total FID capacity for 2023 is on track for more than 3.5 gigawatts (GW) but is unlikely to reach the levels of 2022.
  • 681 MW of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) was installed in Q1 2023 continuing the strong trend from the second half of 2022. Total capacity is expected to reach around 3 GW total in 2023. In addition, installations of air source heat pumps (ASHPs) (energy efficient water heaters) grew 40% compared to Q1 2022. Both trends suggest consumers are, where possible, taking control of their energy bills.
    • ASHPs are typically replacing older, less efficient hot water systems. About 80% of installations are replacing less efficient electric systems, 10% are replacing gas systems and the remainder are replacing solar heaters. Consumers thinking about switching should start their research early on the best option in case their old system unexpectedly fails. Some states and territories have incentives in addition to the small-scale renewable scheme (SRES) which can help make the switch more enticing.

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QCMR 2023 March quarter market outcomes infographic
2023 March quarter market outcomes and tracking against estimates

Data workbook

  • QCMR data workbook - March Quarter 2023

    The Quarterly Carbon Market Report data workbook - March Quarter 2023 contains additional data and visualisations not available in the report. Additional data sets and figures are included in this workbook to provide the market with more information on the performance of the schemes administered by the Clean Energy Regulator.


Our glossary includes definitions/explanations of many terms and acronyms used throughout the QCMR.