Small-scale technology percentage modelling reports

We engage consultants to analyse and model aspects of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, including:

• reviewing the market for small-scale technology certificates (STC)
• estimating the number of STCs to be created in a relevant calendar year
• identifying key factors affecting the type, number and size of small-scale systems installed
• projecting the likely composition of renewable energy sources under the scheme.

While we accept the studies as opinions of consultants, we recognise there are many other opinions on the future uptake of small-scale renewables.

The reports reflect STC numbers based on the scheme at the time.

Current modelling reports

We engaged 2 consultants to model uptake of small-scale technologies and mid-scale (100 kilowatts to 30 megawatts) solar photovoltaic (PV) systems from 2025 to 2035. This modelling is to help understand the small-scale technologies and mid-scale PV market and should be used as a guide only.

In 2025, we requested that the consultants provide base case, low and high scenarios in their modelling. This has been done due to the increased uncertainty in solar PV uptake over the coming years due to the introduction of the Cheaper Home Batteries Program and the end of the Renewable Energy Target.

The final reports from ACIL Allen and Jacobs are available below:

Previous modelling reports

We engaged a number of consultants in previous years to provide forward estimates of the number of STCs likely to be created in those years.