We engage consultants to analyse and model aspects of the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, including:

  • reviewing the market for small-scale technology certificates (STC)
  • estimating the number of STCs to be created in a relevant calendar year
  • identifying key factors affecting the type, number and size of small-scale systems installed
  • projecting the likely composition of renewable energy sources under the scheme.

While we accept the studies as opinions of consultants, we recognise there are many other opinions on the future uptake of small-scale renewables.

The reports reflect STC numbers based on the scheme at the time.

Current modelling reports

Modelling for the 2024 STP and the 2025–26 non-binding small-scale technology percentage

We engaged 2 consultants to estimate the number of STCs likely to be created in 2024, 2025 and 2026. The average of these estimates for each year in question is used to calculate the 2024 small-scale technology percentage (STP) and the 2025 and 2026 non-binding STPs.

The reports are based on data we gave to the consultants, current as of 31 October 2023.

Previous modelling reports

We engaged a number of consultants in previous years to provide forward estimates of the number of STCs likely to be created in those years.