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Price uncertainty eases as some stability returns to the ACCU market

  • ACCU reported spot prices decreased over the quarter for both generic and specified method types. The generic ACCU price dropped by 18% over the period, from $39.00 to $31.85. It decreased further in July to a low of $24, recovering by mid-August to $32.
    • The price difference between generic ACCUs and those with environmental and First Nations benefits grew.
  • Deliveries to the Commonwealth Emissions Reduction Fund Delivery (CERFD) account increased to 1 million ACCUs by August 2023.
  • 6.2 million ACCUs were issued in the first half (H1) of 2023. We expect to issue a total of 18 million ACCUs in 2023. Total ACCU holdings have grown to 27.6 million.
    • The first issuance under the new 2021 soil carbon method occurred during Q2 2023. 151,000 ACCUs were issued to 2 projects in high rainfall areas.

Challenges keep new large-scale renewable energy investments subdued while voluntary demand for LGCs grows

  • The first half of 2023 was quiet for new renewable energy investment commitments. 0.5 gigawatts (GW) reached a final investment decision (FID). 
    • There are a number of challenges to investment commitments for new renewable capacity, including higher costs, connection and permitting, and revenue certainty.
    • A large step up in investment is required to reach 82% renewable energy generation by 2030.
  • Almost 1 GW of new capacity was approved for LGC creation in H1 2023. 2.8 GW of new large-scale wind and solar capacity is expected to reach first generation in 2023.
  • Eligible LGC generation reached 24,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in H1 2023, up 21% from H1 2022.
    • Renewable electricity met a H1 record of 36.4% of demand in the National Electricity Market (NEM). This is expected to grow to 40% by December 2023.
  • Non-RET (including voluntary) demand for LGCs in H1 2023 was 5.2 million LGCs, with significant growth from retailers, universities and local governments.
    • Further demand is expected from GreenPower to meet voluntary corporate renewable energy commitments in the second half of 2023.
    • We expect total cancellations for 2023 to be materially higher than 8 million LGCs.

New installed rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) capacity is tracking to more than 3 GW in 2023

  • Installed rooftop solar PV capacity grew 21% year on year to 1.4 GW in H1 2023. The total added capacity for the year is tracking towards the record of 3.2 GW set in 2021.
  • Rooftop solar PV system sizes are getting bigger, with the average system reaching a record 9.3 kilowatts (kW) in H1 2023.
  • Strong growth in air source heat pump (ASHP) installations continued in H1 2023, bringing total installations this year to an estimated 60,000. This represents a 70% increase on the 36,000 installations in H1 2022.
    • More than 1.1 million STCs were created from ASHP installations in H1 2023. That is 8% of the total STC creations in H1 2023.

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2023 June quarter QCMR market outcomes infographic
2023 June quarter market outcomes and tracking against estimates

Data workbook


Our glossary includes definitions/explanations of many terms and acronyms used throughout the QCMR.